1 Opening Remarks: Tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated over the last Two Years, mainly over two disputed territories: Scarborough Shoal and the Second Thomas Shoal, one of the Spratly Islands. China calls Scarborough Shoal “Huangyan Dao” and the Second Thomas Shoal Ren’al Jiao. Before the 1970s, China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea islands had never been challenged by any external forces.
The root cause of the disputes over the South China Sea lies in the fact that since that date some countries have invaded and illegally occupied some islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Islands. Recently, the Philippines has been continuously escalating provocations in Huangyan Dao (Scarborough Shoal), and Ren’ai Jiao (Second Thomas Shoal) and has also repeatedly sent people to step on Tiexian Jiao and other uninhabited islands and reefs that belong to China in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the Philippines has adopted a victim narrative to manipulate public opinion. Countries that include the United States and Japan also exploited their extensive network of Think Tanks and influential media outlets to wield substantial influence in shaping narratives that align with the Philippines’ agenda.
2 The Main Cause of Tensions: The current administration of Marcos Jr. in the Philippines has taken a U-Turn and diverted the policies and strategies of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who had navigated the Philippines out of illicit drugs and street crime successfully and put the country on the path of social stability, economic development, and peace in the country by working very closely with countries in the region included China. Marcos. Jr. Administration, from the very beginning was infiltrated by elements that were driving the country to a confrontational policy instead of collaboration and cooperation with China on the false pretext of the Maritime border dispute, which is being addressed thoroughly in DOC, which was approved in 2002 by China-ASEAN Summit Meeting in Cambodia. Twenty-two (22) years ago, China and ASEAN countries signed the “Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea” or DOC, which requires “refraining from the action of inhabiting on the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays and other features.
To a certain extent, this is to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea by “freezing the status quo”. Currently, China is also finalizing the COC framework to resolve any dispute in the South China Sea between China-ASEAN amicably. The Marcos Administration’s provocations in Xianbin Jiao waters have infringed on China’s sovereignty and integrity, violated the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and threatened peace in the South China Sea and the entire region. Therefore, China, which has indisputable sovereignty over the islands and reefs in the area and adjacent waters, is entitled to take resolute action.
Among the ten ASEAN countries, the Filipinos are the most pro-US. The recently concluded State of Southeast Asia survey conducted by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute found that if forced to align itself with either China or the US, more ASEAN countries chose China over the US for the first time this year. Yet, it was the opposite for the Philippines – a whopping 78% of Philippine respondents had already chosen the US in 2023, and this figure again rose to 83% this year. Notably, while this survey is not a formal poll since it is conducted annually, it reflects the geopolitical perspectives of the elites in ASEAN.
3 The Aims and Objectives of deploying USA Intermediate-Range Missiles System: Last April 2024, the Philippines gave the US access to Four additional military bases, which allowed the American military to store defense equipment and supplies there. The four new sites included: Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Cagayan; Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela; Balabac Island in Palawan; and Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan. That is in addition to the five existing Philippines sites the US has access to, bringing the total number to Nine. Last April 2024, both countries also held their largest military exercise in history, with nearly 18,000 soldiers from both nations participating in drills.
The U.S. Army Pacific announced in April 2024 that the United States has deployed the Mid-Range Capability Missile System, also known as Typhon, to Luzon, the Philippines, as part of their joint military exercise, which marks the first time that the country deployed a land-based, ground-launched system. ASEAN Charter states that ASEAN countries will not allow the foreign military to base in each member state, but in this case, the United States and the Philippines are very wrong since they breach the ASEAN Charter for their own benefit. The U.S. deployment of medium-range ballistic missiles in the Philippines has posed a grave threat and danger to regional peace and stability and created uncertainty and war-like scenarios in the whole region.
Allowing the American army to re-establish their bases on the Four More Islands and deploy American missiles on the Philippine Sovereign Soil has unleashed the threat and danger to the peace and stability of the region. The Philippines’ stance as a neutral and independent country in ASEAN has also come under threat. This shows the Philippines’ diplomatic weakness and disarray of its foreign policy and strategy, as Marco Jr.’s administration is incompetent and incapable of resolving issues with its neighbors independently.
4 The MRC Missile System is for Taiwan’s Protection: What is the purpose and objective of deploying the MRC Missile System on the Philippines Sovereign Soil?
There could be Two Purposes: The First is for the South China Sea issue. The Second is for the Taiwan issue. But, if it is for the South China Sea issue, everybody knows and can tell that China has never threatened to use Force against any ASEAN Claimants. So, many political and strategic analysts across the globe believe that the real purpose of the US MRC Missile System is to strengthen its forward military capability and presence along the First Chain of Islands. And the Philippines happened to be one of the countries along the First Chain of Islands.
So, this is what the US wants most. But, then the question is actually for the Filipino Government, why would they all of a sudden give Nine Military Bases to the US? When President Marcos came into power, China gave him a red carpet welcome, so China hoped he would follow a more or less friendly policy toward China. But China doesn’t understand why suddenly he would make a U-Turn. All the geopolitical and strategic analysts in the world strongly believe that the US is using the Soil of the Philippines to launch a counterattack or provide strategic assistance or information to Taiwan in case of armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Allowing the American Army to the Nine Military Bases in the Philippines and the MRC System TYPHOON range is 1500 kilometers, which puts Taiwan and mainland China in its range, shows a nefarious conspiracy of Marcos Jr. government to interfere in the internal affairs of China, undermines its territorial integrity and sovereignty, at the same times, encouraging and supporting unscrupulous separatists and secessionists in Taiwan to go for Island independence.
5 China’s Stance: China does not want a conflict with any country anywhere in the world, let alone the South China Sea. The USA probably wants these small countries like the Philippines to poke into China’s eyes to make China feel unconformable, but China strongly believes in dialogues and negotiations. There is a general understanding between China and ASEAN countries that they would resolve all the issues peacefully.
The Relationship between China and the Philippines; despite the Philippines suing China in the International Tribunal, which China does not recognize the Ruling, China has been very friendly with Duterte’s Government. China has even provided Free Ammunition, Rifles, and Machine guns to the Filipino Government to help them in resolving rebellion in the Southern Philippines. There has been no serious complaint from the Filipino Government during President Duterte’s tenure toward China. There was a Gentlemen’s Agreement between China and Duterte’s government to resolve all the issues through dialogues and negotiations. But, Marcos’s Government from the beginning assertive and diverted from all the friendly policies of his predecessor toward China.
6 The Latest News from SCS: The Philippine Army said on Monday, December 16 that it plans to boost the country’s defenses by acquiring soon a Mid-Range Capability (MRC) Missile System, but not specifically the US-made Typhon, whose deployment to the government early this year had angered regional countries including China.
The US Army deployed the Typhon in the northern Philippines facing Taiwan last April 2024, for a series of large-scale military exercises between Manila and Washington. The land-based Typhon missile launcher, developed by US firm Lockheed Martin for the US military, has a range of 480km (300 miles), though a longer-range version is in development. Typhon is a ground-based missile launcher that could launch Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles. It comprises a battery operations center, four launchers, prime movers, and modified trailers.
Tomahawks are believed to have a range of more than 1,500 km, while the SM-6 has an operational range of more than 240 km.
All the Critics, Geostrategic and Geopolitical analysts across the globe strongly believe that It is an extremely irresponsible choice of Marcos Jr.’s Government. This Philippines move will endanger the peace, socioeconomic activities, and, security of the region and especially ASEAN. The region needs peace, economic development, and prosperity, not missiles and confrontation.
7 Conclusion: There has been debate in the Philippines and all ASEAN countries about President Marcos’s approach to China, and critics of his approach include his Sister, Senator Imee Marcos, Vice President Sara Duterte, and former President Rodrigo Duterte. The narrative is that more assertive foreign policy under Marcos is somehow antagonizing China and disrupting cordial and peaceful relationships. There is also the narrative that Marcos is allowing the Philippines to be a Proxy for the USA, for it to be more involved in this part of the world. The Philippines, under the Marcos ‘government, slowly lost its Neutrality, Independence, and Sovereignty to the Outsider Players.
Dr. Joseph Matthews (Senior Professor)Freelance Journalist, Independent Geopolitical & Geostrategic Analyst BELTEI International University Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
